An emerging Greece: Looking beyond the political divide.

After ten years of social/political and economic turmoil, an ever-growing threat from Turkey and recent internal tensions over the name dispute with Skopje it is easy to conclude that Greece may be close to passing the point of no return. But once you scratch the surface and look beyond the politics of divide and the extremist rhetoric (both in and outside Greece) is this actually the case? 

Improving Economy

The economy of Greece is the 48th largest in the world. After many years of painful economic and structural reforms its seems very likely that the Greek economy may just be turning. The Bank of Greece estimates economic activity to pick up in the medium term, with GDP growing by 2.4 percent in 2018 and 2.5 percent in 2019. The account deficit (that is the measurement of a country's trade where the value of the goods and services it imports exceeds the value of the goods and services it exports) has substantially fallen. Today there is a substantially healthier balance between what Greece imports and exports - indeed according to Bank of Greece governor Yannis Stournaras the current account deficit has effectively being in balance over the last three years. 

Recent consecutive credit rating increases and positive outlook by the likes of Standard & Poor's, Fitch and other credit agencies give further credence to the view that Greek economy is recovering. Yes, Greek bonds are still considered non-investment grade speculative however there is a heightened improved global financial sentiment. Only a few weeks ago, Greece was able to issue a new seven-year bond and raise 3 billion euros at a yield of 3.5%. To put this in perspective Greece was able to borrow funds from the international markets at the lowest rate of interest in over 11 years. 

The current bailout agreement expires in mid-2018. On a further positive note, there is a consensus by international economic analysts that Greece will not require a new bailout agreement and will be provided with the much-anticipated debt relief – that is always subject to Greece continuing its structural reforms and barring any global economic downturn. To permit a smooth transition to permanent international funding Greece may choose to obtain a precautionary EU credit line. Greece will still be under post bailout supervision regime however it seems that this will be more focused on achieving agreed key performance indicators as opposed to micromanaging how these will be met. 

Have these changes adequately trickled down to the public? Absolutely not. However, as long as all Greek governments continue to adopt a reformist approach to the economy, taxation, judiciary, private enterprise and public sector they soon will. 

Foreign Policy

Provocations in the Aegean Sea by Turkey are not new. These skirmishes take place daily over many years forcing Greece to spend billions of dollars on military equipment. However, the threat by Turkey is real and increasing. Turkey is nervous and remains deeply insecure especially with its military involvement in Syria. Greece cannot afford to be idle and complacent – both diplomatically and military.

Greece has correctly refused to succumb to the increased polemic rhetoric of Turkish President Erdogan (and Greek trigger-happy warmongers) and has not volunteered to be dragged into a war by escalating tensions in the Aegean Sea. Greece has correctly made it clear to all and sundry that it will not hesitate to defend its borders. It must continue to insist that resolution to disputes should only be achieved by the implementation of United Nations Resolutions, International Conventions, European Acquis and International Law.

Having one large and aggressive neighbour to contend with is more than enough for Greece. A triple front with Turkey, Albania and Skopje is not prudent. Greece is wisely attempting to find inroads to resolve its issues with both Skopje and Albania. It is imperative that these issues be adequately resolved in order to avert Erdogan’s deep-seated strategy of neo-Ottomanism in the Balkans – that is the desire for both Albania and Skopje to become Turkish satellite states. The choice is very clear. Either these states will resolve their issues with Greece and soon enter the European Union or otherwise left in their own devices they may follow the path to Turkey - with substantial security ramifications for Greece. By averting all threats from the north Greece can only win. Greece will be able to solely focus on its problems with Turkey and will upgrade its role as the leading Balkan politico-economic power and bastion of regional stability.

Where to from here?

Not all is doom and gloom. There are positive developments taking place daily. The question remains what do we want? What do we wish to achieve? Are we willing to avoid a race to the bottom that will cause us to disintegrate within an internal misunderstanding and hatred? Do we not realise that the problem with racing to the bottom of the pit is that we may just win such race and remain there? There is a clear choice that we must all make. Maybe we should choose not to see traitors everywhere. Maybe it is wise to ignore the opportunistic rhetoric of hate and political divisions based on yesteryear's politics. Maybe it is time to work towards consensus and harmony and invest in the abilities of the Greek people. 

Vasilis Theodosiou Giavris

(Lawyer & Political Scientist)

Standing opposed the politics of Greek populism, lies and misery

The name dispute issue with Skopje is of fundamental importance to all Greek people. Regrettably, it has been hijacked by demagogues preoccupied with fulfilling their own (and their internal/external patron sponsors) personal and political agendas. It is farcical that the major political parties in Greece do not have a uniform approach to this issue and have failed to achieve national consensus. The absence of a common front and national planning has resulted in a serious risk that Greece will be defeated in this matter. Responsibility lays on the entire political spectrum and media outlets that continue to mislead and invest in political division and commotion. 

However, the greatest problem facing Greece today is not the name dispute with Skopje – it is the economy and rapid population decline. These two problems are intertwined and directly linked to the country's foreign policy. Both have severe ramifications on our relations with Turkey, our greatest threat, and our neighbours in the Balkan peninsula. After all, the ability to exercise foreign influence is primarily dependant on the internal strength of a state and Greece, with its current social/political divisions, economic turmoil and aging population, is lacking in such dynamism. 

Similarly, population balances in the Balkans are quickly being overturned. The population of Turkey and the number of Albanians in the Balkan peninsula is rising rapidly. In contrast, in Greece there is a demographic contraction. Eurostat estimates that by the year 2080 the population of Greece will have fallen by 3.5 million! As a result, the Greek nation is shrinking with all the inevitable consequences that frequently follow. Besides, in geopolitics there are no gaps since increasing populations will always desire to fill the gaps left by declining populations.

Unfortunately, young Greek people continue to emigrate abroad, and the ones staying behind are not bearing many children. As long as the economy remains weak and unemployment high, this downward spiral will continue. The economy will remain weak if we refuse to impose the appropriate reforms and structural changes that the country needs and we continue to invest in polarisation and controversy. It will remain weak if we constantly demand change of governments, if we continue to blame others and never take ownership of our wrongdoings and seek to immediately redress them. With ongoing strikes, demonstrations, aphorisms and the politics of misery, Greece will not go forward. In such a climate of uncertainty, one cannot expect investment and growth or the return of young people to Greece. 

Issues such as sub-replacement fertility and creating incentives to attract the return of people who recently migrated abroad, including some second and third generation Greeks living abroad, remain outside the political agenda. The reason they do so is simple. These issues do not sell, they do not polarise, they do not immediately bring party political benefits. A protest rally for these issues will never take place and as long as Greeks continue to focus on the tree and lose sight of the forest, this will never change. 

Within this fluid state, Greece is today called upon to carefully manoeuvre between the Scylla of populism and the Charybdis of deceit whilst simultaneously standing its ground in an aggressive neighbourhood. But today cannot come from yesterday only nor from the proponents of loud, proud and ignorant. The future cannot be built on jingoisms, whipping up passion, lies and false dilemmas. The power of Greece is commensurate with its knowledge. As long as the citizens of Greece permit themselves to be deceived by populism, by false and misleading media reports and Facebook rants, the country will remain weak and its citizens will continue to suffer. 

It is imperative that we stand up and oppose those who wish to immobilize every attempt to escape our current predicament. That we oppose the cycle of fanaticism, misinformation and instability. Let us refuse to adhere to hollow reflex politics. Against populism, lies and misery, let us uphold a new patriotism. A new patriotism based on the renewal of knowledge. One that is not afraid to speak the truth and is able to balance vision and popular desire with diplomacy and realism. 

Vasilis Theodosiou Giavris

(Lawyer - Political Scientist)

Melbourne, February 15, 2018